The re-taking of Mocimboa da Praia was quickly followed by statements by Rwandan and Mozambican forces that it is now safe for IDP’s to return. But how correct is this?

In an interview with the Portuguese newspaper “Diario de Noticias”, Jasmine Opperman points out that there was not much fighting. By the time Rwandan and Mozambican soldiers arrived, most insurgents had already left – they have sufficient transport due to vehicles looted during attacks. She says that the insurgents dispersed into smaller groups into the bush, where they are regrouping and preparing for further attacks.

Eric Morier-Genoud, a researcher with Queen’s University in Belfast, agrees. Even though reports indicate that 33 insurgents were killed, none of them were insurgency leaders. He points out that the insurgents’ forces on the ground as well as their equipment and logistics remain largely intact.

On 10 August the insurgent group “Daesh” published a call on the Al Naba website calling for a general mobilization of its combatants.

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