1. Insurgents attach village in Tanzania

For the first time, the conflict in Cabo Delgado has spilled across the border into Tanzania, marking a dangerous escalation of the violence. About 30 insurgents  from Mozambique attacked the village of Kitaya on the Ruvuma river (right by the border) on 14 October n the evening (around 7 to 9 pm). There is a Tanzanian army base close to the village and Tanzanian soldiers tried to intervene, but the insurgents were very well equipped with machine guns and other material, and the soldiers could not do much. According to reports, two Tanzanian soldiers and 1 villager were killed, and another villager was shot in the legs.  1 tanker and 2 army vehicles were burned, in addition to the village dispensary, shops, warehouses and several houses. 30 Tanzanian villagers were taken by force to Mozambique by the insurgents. The insurgents claimed that that this was only the beginning, as they want the border between Tanzania and Mozambique to start in Lindi, not Mtwara

Earlier in the week attacks continued in Cabo Delgado itself. Attacks were reported in Mucojo, Macomia district on 11 October. After traveling through the surrounding villages of Guludo, Naunde, and Olumboa, insurgents entered Mucojo town, where they killed two civilians and stole dried fish and salt. As Cabo Delgado enters its lean season, when food production is scarce, these kinds of food-gathering attacks will likely become more common even as the frequency of attacks fluctuates.

The Mucojo attack followed reports on 9 October that insurgents had established several roadblocks along the route between Mucojo and Macomia town. Civilians fleeing Naunde for Macomia said that they passed barricades made of tree trunks ten separate times between Mucojo and their destination. The civilians also complained that government troops in Macomia were more interested in preventing them from entering the district capital than in going to protect Mucojo and other settlements in the eastern half of the district.

Mozambican security forces on 5 October  soldiers found two young men talking on a phone after curfew in Palma town. The young men tried to flee when the soldiers arrived, but the soldiers shot and killed them. Local civilians reported hearing the sound of more gunfire that night as well.

By the early morning of 8 October, a combined force of soldiers, police, and local militias had begun a ratissage operation in Palma town, pulling people from their homes on suspicion of being associated with the insurgency. Some people were returned quickly to their families, but others have not been seen since. The operation is reminiscent of the security services’ approach in Mocimboa da Praia town when the government was last in control there. Frequent, brutal raids there led to many civilians being killed and wounded, and others being forced to flee.

At the same time the raids were beginning in Palma, Pinnacle News reported that Dyck Advisory Group helicopters were involved in operations against insurgents on unspecified islands off the coast of Cabo Delgado. Pinnacle’s government source said that the operations targeted areas where insurgents had displaced fishing villages, and that insurgents were killed, though the source declined to say how many. According to the source, the government was able to locate the insurgents using signals from cell phones the insurgents stole from civilians during a recent attack in Bilibiza, Quissanga district. Other sources have confirmed the government’s use of cell phone location data to gather intelligence.

New information also came to light last week about earlier incidents. During the 30 September attack on Mucojo town, insurgents targeted the local government barracks, killing at least 10 security service members. Civilians discovered their bodies upon returning to the town. During the occupation of Pangane, Macomia district on the same day, insurgents killed two soldiers and five civilians. During the 3 October insurgent attack on Magaia, Muidumbe district, the local militia that thwarted the attack managed to capture five insurgents.

  1. Mozambican human rights activists concerned about EU promise of military support

In response to Mozambique’s official request for assistance in Cabo Delgado, the European Union (EU) last week delivered a letter to the Mozambican government pledging to provide humanitarian and security support in the conflict. The security assistance will be the first official international intervention specifically directed at improving the government’s ability to fight in Cabo Delgado.

Details of what the EU will provide are still to be determined. But the move raises questions about human rights concerns, as many of the Mozambican units currently deployed in Cabo Delgado have been implicated in the killings and abuses of civilians and prisoners. If the EU takes on a major training program for Mozambican security services, it runs the risk of enabling and implicating itself in further abuses. Support to military units that commit human rights abuses with impunity is illegal under United States law, but the EU has no equivalent regulation, which means there is no immediate legal impediment to providing training support. It remains to be seen which EU member states will be involved in supporting Mozambique, and whether their own laws concerning training of human rights abusers, if they exist, will be a stumbling block in executing a support agreement.

In other regions around the world, despite the lack of regulations, the EU has sometimes acted to shield itself from association with abusive military units by conditioning its support on respect for human rights. Some security assistance agreements have stipulated that human rights training must be part of the curriculum, and have included language threatening withdrawal of support if units that have been trained commit abuses. No details of the EU-Mozambique agreement are yet available, but similar stipulations may end up in an eventual deal.

  1. Parliamentary enquiry into violence in Cabo Delgado

Human rights abuses will likely be absent from a parliamentary inquiry into violence in Cabo Delgado and central Mozambique, which is set to be released at the end of the month. Renamo members of parliament, anticipating a report focused exclusively on insurgent atrocities, have demanded another parliamentary inquiry to investigate abuses by government forces. The opposition party tried to launch a similar inquiry in May and were stonewalled by Frelimo. They are hoping that recent video evidence of government abuses will create a groundswell of support for a new investigation.

  1. World Bank support possible to address humanitarian catastrophe

The World Bank’s new country director for Mozambique, Idah Pswarayi-Riddihough, chose the day after the three-year anniversary of the start of the Cabo Delgado conflict to release an op-ed stating that, when it comes to the prevention of violent conflict, “prevention is better than the cure.” While the time for prevention may have passed, Pswarayi-Riddihough pledged that the Bank would pursue it anyway, noting that Mozambique is now eligible for an extra $700 million in funding to “address the underlying causes of fragility and conflict.” That money would likely be spent in association with Mozambique’s new Integrated Northern Development Agency (known by its Portuguese acronym ADIN).

Added humanitarian and development spending, however, will come too late for many displaced people living on the islands off the Cabo Delgado coast. After the occupation of Pangane, where a large number of displaced people had been living, many fled to nearby Ilha Matemo. There, with food supplies stretched and sanitation inadequate, diarrhea has once again become a threat. Two people have died from diarrhea in the past week on Ilha Matemo. Pangane, where many of those on Ilha Matemo escaped from, had been the site of a major cholera outbreak until a government public health team was able to land there in early August.

Part of the overcrowding problem on Ilha Matemo stems from the Ibo district government’s decision to prevent displaced people from entering nearby Ibo Island. The officials are concerned that allowing new people onto the island will bring in insurgent infiltrators. The fears follow threats by insurgents to civilians in coastal villages near Mucojo that they will soon attack Matemo and Ibo.

The humanitarian toll on Ibo has been steep over the course of the conflict. A new study of child malnutrition in Mozambique, based on fieldwork done between 2017 and 2019, finds that acute malnutrition rates were higher in Ibo than in any of the 44 other districts surveyed. The researchers, from the United Nations Children’s Fund, estimate that child malnutrition rates in Ibo district were some 15% during the first years of the conflict. The only other Cabo Delgado districts surveyed were Meluco, Balama, Namuno, and Mecufi, all of which have much lower displaced populations and, correspondingly, lower child malnutrition rates.

The humanitarian situation in the conflict-affected districts of the mainland is likely no better, however. A Carta de Mocambique report finds that 3,000 people walked from the Mucojo area to Macomia town following the recent attacks. Twelve people died of hunger along the way. The same report cites sources in international aid organizations saying that insurgents have beheaded 14 community leaders, destroyed 25 health centers, and burned 50 schools over the course of the conflict.

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